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On March 20th, the price of EUAs hit a low of 82 EUR, but it has since surged to around 95 EUR, where it currently stands. However, there is a significant resistance level at 100 EUR, and it remains to be seen how the EUAs will react to concerns about a potential recession in the equity markets, given their strong correlation with the S&P 500. If the price manages to break through the 100 EUR level, it could potentially reach as high as 105 EUR, where another resistance level has formed.

In 2023, the amount of allowances available for auctioning in REPowerEU is restricted by the regulations outlined in Article 10e of the ETS Directive and the Auctioning Regulation, as well as the financing requirements of the Innovation Fund.

Currently, the Auctioning Regulation stipulates that 40 million allowances can be auctioned for the Innovation Fund in 2023. Additional auctioning of the Innovation Fund volume is not feasible until the Auctioning Regulation is modified.

However, up to 16.5 million additional allowances that would typically be auctioned by Member States in 2027-2030 are projected to be frontloaded and auctioned in 2023.

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